People of the Keys!

“And let them that know thy name hope in thee: for thou, O Lord, hast not failed them that diligently seek thee.”
(Psalm 9:10)
Not Failed

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Trump staffs up Mideast team for peace plan rollout

By MATTHEW LEE and ZEKE MILLER

Aug. 03, 2018

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. officials say the Trump administration is staffing up a Middle East policy team at the White House in anticipation of unveiling its long awaited but largely mysterious Israeli-Palestinian peace plan.

The National Security Council last week began approaching other agencies seeking volunteers to join the team, which will work for President Donald Trump’s Mideast peace pointmen Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt, according to the officials. The team, which is being set up to organize the peace plan’s public presentation and any negotiations that may ensue, will comprise three units: one concentrating on its political and security details, one on its significant economic focus and one on strategic communications, the officials said.

The creation of a White House team is the first evidence in months that a plan is advancing. Although Trump officials have long promised the most comprehensive package ever put forward toward resolving the conflict, the emerging plan has not been described with even a small amount of detail by Kushner, Greenblatt or any other official.

Timing on the release of the plan remains undecided. The State Department, Pentagon, intelligence agencies and Congress have been asked to detail personnel to the team for six months to a year, according to the officials, who were not authorized to publicly discuss the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The agencies declined to comment but an NSC official said that Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, and Greenblatt, Trump’s special envoy for international negotiations, “are expanding their team and the resources available as they finalize the details and rollout strategy of the peace initiative.”

White House officials say the plan will focus on pragmatic details, rather than top-line concepts, that will be able to easier win public support.

Yet the Palestinian leadership has been openly hostile to any proposal from the Trump administration, citing what it says is a pro-Israel bias, notably after Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in December and moved the U.S. embassy there from Tel Aviv in May. Since the Palestinian Authority and its President Mahmoud Abbas broke off contact after the Jerusalem announcement, the U.S. negotiating team has been talking to independent Palestinian experts.

The White House expects that the Palestinian Authority will engage on the plan and has been resisting congressional demands to fully close the Palestine Liberation Organization office in Washington because Greenblatt and Kushner want to keep that channel open. But officials have offered little evidence to back that up.

Palestinian alienation has continued to grow as millions of dollars in U.S. assistance remains on hold and appears likely to be cut entirely. With just two months left in the current budget year, less than half of the planned $251 million in U.S. aid planned for the Palestinians in 2018 — $92.8 million — has been released, according to the government’s online tracker, www.foreignassistance.gov.

The remaining amount is still on hold as is an additional $65 million in frozen U.S. assistance to the U.N. Relief and Works Agency, which provides services to Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza, Jordan and Lebanon.

In addition, Israel’s response to the plan is far from certain. Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is one of Trump’s top foreign allies, it remains unclear if he will back massive investment in Gaza, which is run by the militant Hamas movement.

For the plan to succeed or even survive the starting gate, it will need at least initial buy-in from both Israel and the Palestinians as well as from the Gulf Arab states, which officials say will be asked to substantially bankroll its economic portion. Arab officials have thus far adopted a wait-and-see approach.

Officials say there will never be a perfect time for the roll-out, but that they are laying the groundwork now for when an opportune time becomes apparent. The plan is not done, but is being finalized, including an economic development proposal for the Palestinian people that foresees major infrastructure and industrial work, particularly in Gaza.

The officials believe that the hope of a better economic future for the Palestinians coupled with progress on that front, the Palestinians may be willing to delay or modify what have been intractable and to-date unresolvable demands from Israel. Those include the right for Palestinian refugees to return to lands they abandoned or were forced from, the recognition of east Jerusalem as the capital of an independent Palestine.

And, they plan to appeal to all sides of the conflict not to let the disagreements of the past hold back their children’s futures, according to the officials.

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Religion News Service

Retired Pope Benedict accused of anti-Semitism after article on Christians and Jews

August 3, 2108

Then-Pope Benedict XVI receives a gift from Israeli chief Rabbis Shlomo Amar, right, and Yona Metzger, left, at the center for the Jewish Heritage in Jerusalem, on May 12, 2009. The pope told Israel's two chief rabbis that the Catholic Church is "irrevocably committed" to "a genuine and lasting reconciliation between Christians and Jews." (AP Photo/Kobi Gideon, Pool)

PARIS (RNS) — Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI, head of the Roman Catholic Church from 2005 to 2013, is being accused of fostering anti-Semitism after publishing a controversial essay in a German-language theological journal.

Both Jewish and Catholic leaders say that the retired pontiff’s essay on Jewish-Catholic relations in the current issue of Communio suggests he harbors anti-Semitic views despite his visits to synagogues and cordial relations with Jews during his papacy.Articles both criticizing and defending the essay have appeared in German, Austrian and Swiss media in recent weeks.

The central point of debate is Benedict’s denial the Catholic Church ever adopted “supersessionism,” the theological belief that God’s covenant through Christ replaced the covenant God made with the Jewish people, and his insistence at the same time that the Christian lens for reading the Hebrew Bible (Old Testament) is the only valid one.

“Whoever describes the role of Judaism like this is building the foundation for a new anti-Semitism on a Christian basis,” said Rabbi Walter Homolka, executive director of the School of Jewish Theology at Potsdam University in Germany.

“Benedict’s suggestion that Christians should teach Jews how to read selected parts of the Hebrew Bible in a Christological way is very problematic,” said the Rev. Christian Rutishauser, head of the Jesuit order in Switzerland and an expert on Jewish-Christian relations.

Benedict pledged at his surprise 2013 resignation that he would remain “hidden from the world” and not get involved in church debates. He wrote his essay as a private text last fall and passed it on to Cardinal Kurt Koch, president of the Pontifical Commission for Religious Relations with the Jews, who read it and convinced him to publish it.

Critics say the recent essay seems to walk back efforts in the past half-century to undo the Catholic Church’s long history of anti-Semitism. After nearly two millennia of hostility, the Catholic Church’s Second Vatican Council (1962-1965) acknowledged Christianity’s close historical ties with Judaism and absolved Jews of the stereotype of being “Christ killers.”

Pope John Paul II further developed this vision, visiting a synagogue, traveling to Israel, callingJ ews “our elder brothers in the faith” and declaring that God’s covenant with them was not superseded by the covenant through Christ. Benedict’s essay in Communio, an international theological quarterly he helped found in 1972, seemed to walk some of that back to almost pre-Vatican II views. It has not yet been translated into English.

In the essay, Benedict notes that the term supersessionism – a sensitive issue for Jews who reject this view as Christian arrogance – was not listed in leading Christian theological lexicons. Building on this point, he argues that Christianity had never seen itself as completely overtaking Judaism, but just as replacing some Jewish rituals such as animal sacrifice with the Eucharist.

Vienna Chief Rabbi Arie Folger called this argument “an ahistoric revisionism that ignores the real suffering inflicted on Jews for centuries because of the doctrine of (the Church as) ‘the true Israel.'”

Telling Jews how to read the Hebrew Bible in a Christian way seemed to suggest that Christians should revive efforts to convert them, Folger wrote in the Jüdische Allgemeine, the weekly newspaper of the Central Council of Jews in Germany.

Benedict interpreted the expulsion of the Jews from Jerusalem in the second century A.D. as part of a divine plan, but stated that the modern state of Israel did not have a religious significance for Judaism. Folger called this view “dishonest and dubious.”

An association of Christian-Jewish dialogue groups said Benedict’s essay undermines Vatican teaching since the 1960s and even contradicts declarations he had made as pope.

“The future of Christian-Jewish dialogue could falter in the face of this thoroughly critical questioning of its theological foundations,” the German Coordinating Council of Societies for Christian-Jewish Cooperation said in a statement.

Some Catholic theologians have come to Benedict’s defense. Bochum University theologian Thomas Söding said the essay was “not an irritation, but an inspiration for Jewish-Christian dialogue.”

Likewise, Vienna University theologian Jan-Heiner Tück said the essay aimed not to roll back some Catholic positions but to further dialogue between the two religious traditions. Tück said that Benedict’s essay left open the difficult question of what role in salvation Catholicism saw for Judaism since it viewed the Jewish covenant with God as unbroken but the Christian covenant as the true bond. A Vatican document in 2015 said both covenants were paths to salvation, but how this worked was “an unfathomable divine mystery.”

“That should have been made clearer,” Tück said. Benedict was not trying to roll back progress in Christian-Jewish dialogue, he said, “but maybe there’s a certain gap in the description of the positive meaning of Judaism for salvation.”

Critics said Benedict’s essay could help explain why he rewrote the Latin text of the Good Friday prayer for the Jews in 2008. Until the late 1950s, the prayer had worshippers praying that the “perfidious Jews” would open their hearts and accept Jesus as their Lord. The revised 1970 prayer was softened, simply saying the Jews should grow in their love for God.

But in 2008, Benedict changed the wording so that Catholics would pray “that our God and Lord may illuminate their hearts, that they acknowledge Jesus Christ is the Savior of all men.”

“Ten years ago, Joseph Ratzinger rewrote the Good Friday prayer in its Latin form, which was widely viewed as giving approval to evangelize Jews,” said Homolka, referring to Benedict by his birth name. He said the new essay is “the theological key” to understanding that change.

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SinularityHub

In the Future, We’ll Know Everything—Thanks to This Tech

By Peter H. Diamandis, MD

August 2, 2018

We’re rapidly approaching the era of abundant knowledge—a time when you can know anything you want, anywhere you want, anytime you want. An era of radical transparency.

By 2020, it’s estimated we’ll have 50 billion connected devices, which will generate over 600 zettabytes of information.

The global network of connectivity, drones, and satellites are not only connecting people, they’re also connecting things—devices and sensors to form the Internet of Things and the Internet of Everything.

In this blog, we’ll cover four different levels of the Internet of Things:

Satellite imaging the earth in meter-resolution
A sky full of drones imaging everything in centimeter-resolution
Autonomous vehicles sensing our streets in sub-millimeter-resolution
A future of augmented reality glasses imaging everything before us

Let’s dive in.

Satellite Imaging and Orbital IoT

In an earlier blog, I discussed the coming age of microsatellite constellations from SpaceX and OneWeb.

OneWeb is working on a constellation of almost 900 satellites, while SpaceX will deploy over 12,000 mini-fridge-sized satellites. Both constellations plan to deploy global 5G internet. But global internet is only a fraction of the potential of microsatellite constellations. Microsatellite constellations equipped with high-resolution cameras are extending the Internet of Things, providing a massive amount of data to help solve the world’s grand challenges.

As of August 2017, there were nearly 1,800 operational satellites in orbit. Of these, 742 are communications satellites, 596 are used for Earth observation, and 108 are used for navigation.

We’re seeing a massive increase in the number of operational satellites as satellites become smaller and launch costs plummet.

Private companies all over the world are building out satellite technology. Planet Labs is a disruptive company using milk carton-sized imaging satellites to help entire industries obtain game-changing data. Planet Labs showcases 175+ satellites in orbit, enabling them to image anywhere on the globe with up to 3.72-meter resolution.

Alternatively, Planet Labs offers a specialized, targeted satellite option called SkySats. Thirteen of these satellites can achieve up to 72-centimeter resolution. SkySats can also capture video, which can be used to extrapolate 3D models. These satellites are built on the same technology that Google deployed to capture crisp 3D image views for Google Maps.

A Sky Full of Drones

Closer to Earth’s surface (a few hundred feet above our heads) we’re developing an extensive network of autonomous drones that are collecting valuable information for farmers, wind turbine surveyors, financial institutions, and many others.

At CES 2018, the Department of Transportation announced that over 1 million drones were officially registered with the FAA. The FAA predicts that by 2020, 7 million drones will be flying over North America.

While private and commercial drone flight rules remain moderately restrictive, this past October the US announced plans for the federal government to work with companies to start deploying large fleets of drones with more flexible flight restrictions.

As drones become more robust, larger, and more capable, they will generate massive amounts of imaging and sensor data.

A small drone fleet can easily generate 100 terabytes of data per day.

During some of the tragic natural disasters of 2017 (wildfires, hurricanes), drone data collection was invaluable for saving lives, surveying damage, and providing search and rescue operations with crucial footage of hard-to-reach locations. As drones fly more and collect more data, we can use this data in a positive feedback loop to better train autonomous drones.

Speaking of autonomous vehicles… autonomous cars are a big part of the incoming era of abundant knowledge.

Autonomous Vehicles Seeing Everything

Intel predicts that the self-driving car industry will grow to $7 trillion by 2050.

One implication is that these autonomous cars will begin imaging everything surrounding them, all the time. Imagine millions of autonomous cars on the street, each packed with dozens of cameras, LIDAR, and radar “sensing” to help the car navigate.

One key sensor is called a LiDAR, a laser-based technology that builds a 3D map of a car’s surroundings by measuring how long it takes for millions of lasers to bounce off surrounding objects and return to the car. LiDAR market leader Velodyne’s VLS-128 system can obtain up to 9.6 million data points per second. Tesla, unlike Waymo, is avoiding using LiDAR altogether, opting instead for an ultrasonic, radar, and camera approach to autonomous vehicles.

The bottom line is this: when we enter the era of autonomous cars, there will never be a car, pedestrian, accident, or street-side pick-pocket that isn’t being imaged. These cars will record, in detail, an extraordinary abundance of images.

Augmented Reality Headsets

While the world now has more mobile phones than humans, we will soon see the emergence of an even more advanced technology: augmented reality headsets.

Such AR glasses will feature a multitude of forward-looking cameras that image everything at sub-millimeter resolution as you walk about your day. By the end of 2020, our smartphones, AR glasses, watches, medical wearables and smart dust are expected to constitute 50 billion connected devices, hosting a total of 1 trillion sensors.

And just as the number of connected devices is increasing exponentially, the number of sensors per connected device is also increasing exponentially.

So far, sensors on phones have doubled every four years. This means we can expect 160 sensors per mobile device by 2027, and a world jam-packed with near 100 trillion sensors. Sensors that can be accessed and interrogated by your AI to answer almost any question.

I can envision waking up in the morning, putting on my augmented reality contact lenses, and forgetting about them for the rest of the day. While in my eyes, they record every conversation, every person crossing the street, and everything I look at. Drawing from this constant stream of observational data, I’ll be able to train my social graph and preferences into my AI using the collected data sets.

Final Thought–It’s Your Questions that Matter Most!

The bottom line is, we are heading towards a future where you can know anything you want, any time you want, anywhere you want. In this future, it’s not “what you know,” but rather “the quality of the questions you ask” that will be most important.

Want to know the average spectral color of women’s blouses on Madison Avenue this morning? Ask it, and your AI can gather the image data and provide you an accurate answer in seconds. If you’re in the fashion business, you can go on to ask whether any recent advertising campaign correlates with the change in blouse color.

Such an abundance of data is what I call “radical transparency,” and it leads to a few interesting conclusions, which are probably the topic of a future blog…

First, that privacy may truly be a thing of the past. And second, that it is harder and harder to do something in secret without leaving a digital trail.

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MeriTalk

Pentagon Looks to Speed up ‘Third Wave’ AI Technologies

August 1, 2018

The Pentagon is looking to get on top of the next wave of artificial intelligence technologies through a fast-track contracting program that would bring new concepts from the drawing board to proof-of-concept within 18 months.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) new Artificial Intelligence Exploration (AIE) program will employ the agency’s “Disruptioneering” solicitation process to dish out awards of up to $1 million each for ideas that explore the “third wave” of AI theory and applications, the agency said in announcing AIE. Under AIE, DARPA will field proposals within three months of its July 20 pre-solicitation, make awards, and then assess the feasibility of projects within 18 months of each award. At that point, the agency could provide additional funding for further development of prototypes or production.

DARPA is hoping to use the process to quickly identify and cultivate innovative advancements in AI more quickly than potential adversaries such as China, which has made no bones about its desire to become the dominant player in AI by 2030. The country is investing heavily in AI, and China and Russia have announced military centers focused on that subject. Last year China’s AI startups attracted more investment money than America’s did for the first time ever.

The Department of Defense also recently established its Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC), bringing DoD’s roughly 600 AI projects under one roof and working with industry to develop new AI capabilities. The AIE program would be another piece of that effort, looking to get AI technologies into the field ahead of the competition.

“DARPA has established a streamlined process to push the state of the art in AI through regular and relatively short-term technology development projects,” said Peter Highnam, DARPA Deputy Director. “The intent is to get researchers on contract quickly to test the value and feasibility of innovative concepts. Where we’re successful, individual projects could lead to larger research and development programs spurring major AI breakthroughs.”

The third-wave of AI would take a step toward machines thinking and learning closer to the way the human brain works, drawing on relatively small data sets in the learning process.

In broad terms, first-wave AI, which constitutes most of what’s in use today, covers rule-based programs that excel in narrowly defined fields, such as playing chess, diagnosing certain cancer cells, or giving you directions via Google maps. Second-wave AI creates models of certain types of problems or situations and uses statistical learning to allow a machine, within limits, to learn as it goes, adapting to changes on the fly. Neural networks, which filter information through a series of computational layers, offer a good example. Second-wave AI has led to significant developments in face recognition, natural language processing, and driverless car navigation, for instance, though it tends to involve a lot of training of the systems, feeding them hundreds of thousands of examples for each thing it needs to learn.

The third wave looks to overcome the shortcomings of the first two, allowing machines to learn based on fewer examples, working more intuitively, and being able to apply themselves to problems they may not have been specifically trained for. In one example that John Launchbury, director of DARPA’s Information Innovation Office, offered in a DARPA video, a third-wave AI system could learn to identify handwriting from a few contextual examples of how letters are formed, rather than having to learn from 100,000 or so labeled images, the way machines work now.

DARPA also seeks to have an AI system explain its complex reasoning process and how it reached a conclusion in language people can understand, something it can’t do now and which DARPA is exploring through another program, Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI).

DoD sees this next generation of AI as key to creating the kind of human-machine teams that it deems essential for future operations.

Newsmax

Tom DeLay: Justice Dept. Wants to Legalize 12 'Perversions'

By Bill Hoffmann | Tuesday, 30 June 2015 06:23 PM

Read Newsmax: Tom DeLay: Justice Dept. Wants to Legalize 12 'Perversions' | Newsmax.com
Former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay claims the Justice Department has drafted a memo that spells out a dozen "perversions," including bestiality and pedophilia, that it wants legalized.
"We've … found a secret memo coming out of the Justice Department. They're now going to go after 12 new perversions. Things like bestiality, polygamy, having sex with little boys and making that legal," DeLay said Tuesday on "The Steve Malzberg Show" on Newsmax TV.
"Not only that, but they have a whole list of strategies to go after the churches, the pastors and any businesses that try to assert their religious liberty. This is coming and it's coming like a tidal wave."
The Texas Republican's bombshell claim comes four days after the Supreme Court ruled that same-sex marriage is now legal in all 50 states — a landmark decision DeLay strongly opposes.
When Steve Malzberg repeated to DeLay his assertions that the Justice Department seeks "to legitimatize or legalize" practices such as bestiality — defined as sex acts between humans and animals — DeLay responded:
"That's correct, that's correct. They're coming down with 12 new perversions … LGBT [short for lesbian gay, bisexual and transgender] is only the beginning. They're going to start expanding it to the other perversions."

He did not list the other nine "perversions" he said are mentioned in the Justice Department's memo and did not share it with Newsmax TV.
DeLay, who represented the Lone Star State's 22nd District from 1985 to 2006 and was Republican Party House Majority Leader from 2003 to 2005, said that with the high court's ruling last Friday, "all hell is breaking loose."
Just right here in Texas our Attorney General Ken Paxton has written an attorney generals' opinion directing our county clerks that in issuing marriage licenses that they don't have to issue marriage licenses if it conflicts with their religious beliefs. That's just the beginning," DeLay said.
"In just the last few days all over this country, [people] letting their elected officials know that they are upset with us, that the Supreme Court is out of control, that we are in a constitutional crisis. We are really in a constitutional crisis."

"We have a president that totally disregards the Constitution, steps all over it. We have a Supreme Court that … [believes] the Constitution is a living document and whatever they say goes. And we have a Republican Congress that doesn't even understand the Constitution and the fact that they have the most power and can stand up and stop the other two branches. We're in serious trouble."

ASIA TIMES

US-Turkish alliance reaches the point of no return

The sense of indignation among Turks should not be underestimated, which makes this an exceptional rupture

By M.K. BHADRAKUMAR

August 15, 2018

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrives to inaugurate the Diyanet Islamic Cultural Center in the United States in April 2016. Photo: AFP/Olivier Douliery

The Turkish lira fell 22% on Friday before recovering to 17% on the backdrop of the Trump administration’s announcement to double the tariffs on imports of Turkish steel and aluminum.

The tariffs affect Turkish exports worth more than $1 billion in trade with the United States.

The US was the top destination for Turkish steel exports in 2017. Turkey came in sixth place among the countries the US imported steel from last year, while the share of Turkish steel was 7% of total US steel imports.

More to the point, President Trump brazenly hinted that this was a political decision and he tauntingly noted that he also kept an eye on the Turkish lira’s exchange rate.

Trump tweeted: “I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!”

Trump’s tweet has been the proximate cause of the market mayhem hitting the Turkish lira. This comes on top of foreign investors pulling back money in recent months from the Turkish market even as the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates and cut back on asset holdings from quantitative easing. Unsurprisingly, the dollar has sharply increased in value and the lira has lost value and Turkish bond yields have risen.

Turkey traditionally resorted to external borrowing in foreign currency to bridge current account deficits. External funds were lured to the Turkish economy due to the higher yields, fueling growth in the Turkish economy, especially in the construction sector.

With the pullback of money from the Turkish market in recent months, Turkish companies and banks, which took out loans in dollars or euros, are staring at a potential crisis in repaying their debts. In sum, the currency exchange rate volatility is turning into a debt and liquidity crisis.

The financial crisis means that many Turkish companies may have to file for bankruptcy, which will hit the banks. Meanwhile, a cycle is forming as investor confidence dips despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s economic policy of low interest rates.

At such moments, psychological factors inevitably play a big part. Indeed, the Trump administration increasingly prefers to wage economic wars than deploying military force to exert “maximum pressure” in pursuit of foreign policy objectives. Russia, China, Venezuela, Iran, etc are glaring examples. Turkey now joins the rogues’ gallery.

Erdogan too has become a marked man due to his independent foreign policies that are undermining American regional strategies. Trump’s tweet virtually brags about his pressure tactic. Trump’s agenda is unmistakably to bring Erdogan down on his knees.

Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party traditionally drew support from the “bazaar” and the so-called “Anatolian Tigers,” who form Erdogan’s core constituency and are the worst affected in this crisis.

The intervention by credit agencies Merrill Lynch and Standard & Poor’s at critical junctures to rubbish Turkey’s credit rating was an early warning of an impending economic conflict.

Erdogan’s dilemma is two-fold. He could approach the International Monitory Fund for a bail-out, which is what Wall Street and Trump expect him to do. But if he does that, Turkish policies will be subject to tight US scrutiny. And Erdogan will not capitulate.

The alternative is that Erdogan takes help from elsewhere. In an op-ed in the New York Times last week, Erdogan sternly warned Trump: “Before it is too late, Washington must give up the misguided notion that our relationship can be asymmetrical and come to terms with the fact that Turkey has alternatives. Failure to reverse this trend of unilateralism and disrespect will require us to start looking for new friends and allies.”

However, Trump has now snubbed him by promptly doubling the tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum. Erdogan is furious. He said on Sunday: “I declare that we have seen your plot and we are challenging it. There is no economic reason for the present [currency plunge] situation. This a plot to force Turkey to surrender in every field from finance to politics, to make Turkey and its people kneel down.”

The sense of indignation among Turks should not be underestimated, which makes this an exceptional rupture in what has been all along a problematic relationship through the past seven decades. Erdogan on Tuesday said he would enforce an embargo on all American electronic products – including the iPhone famously used to FaceTime CNN Turk the fateful night of the failed coup attempt two years ago.

Alienating Turkey to this extent will be a risky foreign-policy venture on Trump’s part. The US cannot have an effective Middle East policy while antagonizing both Turkey and Iran.

The wider regional geopolitical ramifications are yet to sink in. Turkey is a “swing” state and its policies cast shadows on several regions – from the Balkans, Caucasus and Central Asia to the Middle East and North Africa and the Mediterranean.

Iran has vastly gained in strategic depth. Tehran has expressed strong solidarity with Erdogan. A special envoy from Tehran visited Ankara and met with Erdogan on the weekend. Erdogan expressed a desire for an early meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

Statements from Berlin and Rome already convey a growing sense of exasperation over Trump’s unwarranted sanctions against Turkey. In tackling the migrant or refugee crisis, Erdogan is a crucial partner for the EU. Turkey also has a Customs Union agreement with the EU.

The astonishing part is that all this is unfolding at a time when the US and NATO are raring to redraw the strategic map of the Black Sea to challenge Russia and when the US military presence in Iraq and Syria is facing growing local opposition.

Erdogan said on Sunday that Turkey is considering other markets and political alternatives to its “strategic partnership” with Washington. No doubt, China will be the big winner. China prioritizes Turkey as a key partner in its Belt and Road Initiative.

Trump is seriously underestimating the potency of Turkish nationalism, which is rising to a crescendo. In his Art of the Deal, nationalism has no place – business goes to the highest bidder. The Turkish opinion is hardening that the US was behind the 2016 July failed coup attempt in a concerted strategy to take control of Turkish policies, and the “economic war” is its latest manifestation.

RT

Number of forcibly displaced in Syria reaches 11mn – UN

August 15, 2018

Around 11 million Syrians are currently considered forcibly displaced persons, and six million of those have become refugees within the country, Russian Foreign Ministry representative Nikolay Burtsev said on Wednesday. “According to the data we received, currently 11 million Syrians are ‘forcibly displaced persons,’” TASS quoted him as saying. This data was provided by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, he said. The UNHCR “thinks that their safe return to former places of residence can become a key reason for raising trust and catalyze mass return of refugees from abroad,” according to Burtsev.

Asia Times

Here’s the real reason the US must talk to Russia

A new book details why future historians may well identify Putin’s landmark March 1 speech as the ultimate game-changer in the 21st century New Great Game in Eurasia

By Pepe Escobar

July 21, 2018

Russian warships, among them the frigate Admiral Gorshkov (second left), sail near Kronshtadt naval base outside St Petersburg on July 20, 2018, during a rehearsal for the Naval Parade. Photo: AFP / Olga Maltseva

Future historians may well identify Russian President Vladimir Putin’s landmark March 1 speech as the ultimate game-changer in the 21st-century New Great Game in Eurasia. The reason is minutely detailed in Losing Military Supremacy: The Myopia of American Strategic Planning, a new book by Russian military/naval analyst Andrei Martyanov.

Martyanov is uniquely equipped for the task. Born in Baku in the early 1960s, he was a naval officer in the USSR era up to 1990. He moved to the US in the mid-1990s and is now a lab director in an aerospace firm. He belongs to an extremely rarified group: top military/naval analysts specializing in US-Russia.

From quoting Alexis de Tocqueville and Leo Tolstoy’s War and Peace to revisiting the balance of power during the Soviet era and beyond, Martyanov carefully tracks how the only nation on the planet “which can militarily defeat the United States conventionally” has reacted to a situation where any “meaningful dialogue between Russia and America’s politicians is virtually impossible.”

What is ultimately revealed is not only a case of disregarding basic Sun Tzu – “if you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles” – but most of all undiluted hubris, turbocharged, among a series of illusionistic positive feedback loops, by Desert Storm’s “turkey shoot” of Saddam Hussein’s heavily inflated, woefully trained army.

The United States’ industrial-military-intel-security complex profits from a compounded annual budget of roughly US$1 trillion. The only justification for such whopping expenditure is to manufacture a lethal external threat: Russia. That’s the key reason the complex will not allow US President Donald Trump even to try to normalize relations with Russia.

Yet now this is a whole new ball game as the US faces a formidable adversary that, as Martyanov carefully details, deploys five crucial capabilities.

Command, control, communications, computers, intel, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities equal to or better than the US.
Electronic warfare capabilities equal to or better than the US.
New weapons systems equal to or better than the US.
Air defense systems that are more than a match for US airpower.
Long-range subsonic, supersonic and hypersonic cruise missiles that threaten the US Empire of Bases and even the entire US mainland.

So how did we get here?

Debunking American military mythology

Martyanov argues that Russia, all through the first decade of the millennium, spent enough time “defining herself in terms of enclosed technological cycles, localization and manufacturing.”

In contrast, Germany, even with a large, developed economy, “cannot design and build from scratch a state-of-the-art fighter jet,” while Russia can. Germany “doesn’t have a space industry, and Russia does.”

As for those who pass in the US for Russian “experts,” they never saw these techno-breakthroughs coming; they “simply have no grasp of the enormous difference between the processes involved in a virtual monetized economy and those involved in manufacturing of the modern combat informational control system or of the cutting-edge fighter jet.”

Martyanov produces plenty of snapshots. For instance, “Russia …without any unnecessary fanfare, launched a complete upgrade of her naval nuclear deterrent with state of the art ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) of the Borey-class (Project 955 and 955A)…. This is the program which most Russia ‘analysts’ were laughing at ten years ago. They are not laughing any more.”

A central tenet of the book is to debunk American military mythology. That must include in-depth reappraisal of World War II and a re-examination of how the Soviet Navy was closing the technological gap with the US Navy already by the mid-1970s, even as it remained “a dedicated sea denial force designed strictly for deterrent.” The Soviet Navy, as the Russian Navy today, “was built largely for a single purpose: to prevent a NATO attack on the USSR from the sea.”

Moving to the post-USSR era, it’s inevitable that Russia had to come up with a concerted strategy to counteract the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s relentlessly moving east – a clear violation of the (verbal) agreement between George Bush Senior and Mikhail Gorbachev.

And that leads us to the holy of the holies concerning the favorite Beltway mantra, “Russian aggression.” Even as Russia “does have the capability to deal major damage to NATO,” as Martyanov reminds us, “why would Russia attack or damage European countries which are worth way more for Russia free and prosperous than they would be if damaged and, theoretically, subjugated?”

The caliber of Brzezinski’s nightmare

The book’s Chapter 7, titled “The Failure to Come to Grips with the Modern Geopolitical Realignment,” brings us back to another game-changing moment: the 2015 Victory Parade in Moscow, with Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping sitting next to each other, graphically exposing the worst Zbigniew “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski nightmare of the “two most powerful Eurasian nations declaring full independence from the American vision of the world.”

And then there was Russia’s campaign in Syria; on October 7, 2015, six 3M14 Kalibr cruise missiles were launched in intervals of five seconds from the Russian Navy’s small missile ships in the Caspian Sea, aimed at Daesh targets in Syria. The USS Theodore Roosevelt and its carrier battle group immediately understood the message – exiting the Persian Gulf in a flash.

Since then, the message has been amplified: the Eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, or “the Russian Navy’s Pacific zones of responsibility” are becoming “completely closed zones for any adversary.”

The lesson from the Kalibr-in-the-Caspian saga, writes Martyanov, is that “for the first time it was openly demonstrated, and the world took note, that the American monopoly on symbols of power was officially broken.”

As Martyanov shows how “in both Donbass and especially in Syria, Russia called the American geopolitical and military bluff,” there’s no question this Syria-Ukraine interconnection – which I analyzed here – is the foundation stone of the current “historically unprecedented anti-Russian hysteria in the US.”

So the ball – just like the one offered by Putin to Trump in Helsinki – is in the United States’ court. What Martyanov describes as “the deadly combination of contemporary American elites’ ignorance, hubris and desperation,” though, cannot be underestimated.

Already during his election campaign, Trump announced multiple times that he would contest the post-Cold War international (dis)order. Helsinki was a graphic demonstration that now Trump’s “drain the swamp” faces a massive immovable object, as the swamp will take no prisoners to preserve its trillion-dollar power.

In contrast, Russian diplomacy, as explicitly reaffirmed once again this week by Putin himself, is adamant that anything is permitted when it comes to avoiding Cold War 2.0.

But just in case, Russia’s new-generation weapons have now been formally unveiled by the Defense Ministry, and some of them are already operational.

‘Pearl Harbor meets Stalingrad’

It’s crystal clear that President Trump is applying Kissingerian divide-and-rule tactics, trying to reduce Russian political/economic connectivity with the two other Eurasian integration poles, China and Iran.

Still, the swamp cannot possibly contemplate The Big Picture – as this must-watch conversation between two of the very few Americans who actually know Russia in-depth attests. Professor Stephen Cohen and Professor John Mearsheimer go to the jugular: Nothing can be done when Russophobia is the law of the land.

Over and over again, we must go back to Putin’s March 1 speech, which presented the US with what can only be described, writes Martyanov, as “a military-technological Pearl Harbor-meets-Stalingrad.”

Martyanov goes all the way to explain how the latest Russian weapons systems present immense strategic – and historical – ramifications. The missile gap between the US and Russia is now “a technological abyss,” with ballistic missiles “capable of trajectories which render any kind of anti-ballistic defense useless.” Star Wars and its derivatives are now – to use a Trumpism – “obsolete.”

The Kinzhal, as described by Martyanov, is “a complete game-changer geopolitically, strategically, operationally, tactically and psychologically.” In a nutshell, “no modern or prospective air-defense system deployed today by NATO can intercept even a single missile with such characteristics.”

This means, among other things – and stressing it is never enough – that the whole Eastern Mediterranean can be closed off, not to mention the whole Persian Gulf. And all this goes way beyond asymmetry; it’s about “the final arrival of a completely new paradigm” in warfare and military technology.

Martyanov’s must-read book is the ultimate Weapon of Myth Destruction (WMD). And unlike the Saddam Hussein version, this one actually exists. As Putin warned (at 7:10 in the video), “They did not listen to us then.” Are they listening now?

(A very poigent antiwar song.)
The Band Played Waltzing Matilda
(“And he shall judge among the nations, and shall rebuke many people: and they shall beat their swords into plow- shares, and their spears into sickles: and nation shall not take up sword against nation, neither shall they learn to war any more.” Isaiah 2:4)

BUSINESS INSIDER

'Peace behind me, war in front of me': China's new Army propaganda video is chilling and viral

Daniel Brown

August 9, 2018

China's People's Liberation Army released a chilling video last week called "I am a Chinese Soldier."
The video emotionally underscores the sacrifices made by service members of the PLA while showing off some of the country's latest weaponry.

China's People's Liberation Army released a chilling video last week called "I am a Chinese Soldier," which was first spotted in the West by the National Interest.

Video

The 2:20 minute video, released on August 1 for China's Army Day, emotionally underscores the sacrifices made by service members of the PLA while showing off some of the country's latest weaponry.

At one point in the propaganda video, the narrator says "peace behind me, war in front of me," which The National Interest said could be interpreted to mean war is "inevitable."

The National Interest, which provided a translation of the narration, also pointed out that no female soldiers were depicted in the video — just mothers and wives sending their husbands or sons off.

The high-quality video also likely instilled a lot of pride, something which Eric Wertheim, a naval expert with the US Naval Institute, recently told Business Insider is at least in part China's reason for building a fleet of new aircraft carriers that may soon be on par with the US' Nimitz-class carriers.

But China's grand ambitions for a world-class military likely goes beyond pride and domestic politics, as Beijing continues to set its sights on the East and South China Seas, Taiwan, market access overseas, and more.

AMMC

INDEPENDENT

A US trade war with Turkey over a little known pastor? Don't believe a word of it

Erdogan’s real crimes are buying the Russian S-400 missile system for Turkey, refusing to accept US support for America’s Kurdish YPG allies and allowing Islamist fighters to pour over Turkey’s border into Syria along with a load of weapons, mortars and missiles

Robert Fisk

August 16, 2018

It needs a stroke of genius to soften the heart for poor old Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Those of us who have always believed that Erdogan is a bit off his rocker must still be appalled that a US president infinitely more cracked than the Turkish variety is trying to impoverish Nato’s second largest military ally. True, Erdogan locked up 50,000 Turks – including an American pastor, of whom more later – after the attempted coup against him two years ago, but hasn’t Egypt’s president/field marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi broken this record by banging up 60,000 supposed Islamists in his own country’s prisons? And what about Haider al-Abadi’s mass hangings in Iraq? Or that nasty little post-death crucifixion in Saudi Arabia this week, not to mention that horrid war in Yemen where kids seem to get killed all the time? Or the Israeli habit of shooting down scores of unarmed Palestinians in Gaza? Or that chump in North Korea who appeals to Trump’s sense of humour?

If Erdogan’s family name means “brave falcon” in English, the Sultan of Istanbul has certainly had his wings clipped. Or so we are supposed to believe. Trump, who doesn’t give a toss how many innocents are incarcerated or destroyed in the world, is suddenly trying to neuter Turkey – and all because Pastor Andrew Brunson remains under house arrest in there for allegedly supporting the coup plot allegedly organised by Erdogan’s former colleague, the allegedly mesmeric imam Mohamed Fethullah Gulen, currently residing in Trump’s own country.

I don’t believe a word of it. Trump made little fuss about Brunson’s captivity for many months. It took him almost a year and a half to get into a tantrum about the good Christian family man and missionary in Izmir whose chief characteristics appear to be nothing but wholesome: barbecues, picnics, swimming, movies and board games in the evenings, to quote his sister Beth, “the typical American family though living so far away.” American Evangelical Christians were outraged at the arrest of this Godly man – Christianity was on trial, of course – and their favourite president finally tweeted that “this innocent man of faith should be released immediately”.

And so it came to pass that Trump’s wrath was visited upon by the Muslim president who locked up a man who was only doing God’s work in the comfortable coastal city of Izmir. Double US tariffs on steel and aluminium helped to crash the Turkish lira, which has lost 45 per cent of its value this year, although Erdogan might also be blamed for his refusal to raise interest rates against inflation. But let’s be sane. Is all this because of a Presbyterian pastor?

No. For here’s the real list of Erdogan’s crimes. He is buying the Russian S-400 missile system for Turkey. He refuses to accept US support for America’s Kurdish YPG allies. He allowed Islamist fighters to pour over Turkey’s border into Syria along with a lot of weapons, mortars and missiles – to which Washington had no objections at the time since the US was trying to knock Erdogan’s former friend Bashar al-Assad off his perch. Then, after shooting down a Russian aircraft along the Syrian border in November 2015 – for which he was immediately boycotted by Moscow – Erdogan cuddled up to Putin. It was thus the Russians and the Iranians who first warned Erdogan of the impending “Gulen coup” against him in July 2016. They had been listening in to the Turkish military’s internal radio traffic – and tipped off the Sultan of Istanbul.

And now Erdogan is helping Iran to dodge US sanctions which were imposed after Trump flagrantly tore up the 2015 nuclear agreement, and – in a decision demonstrating the cowardly response of the EU’s own oil conglomerates to Trump’s insanity – has announced that he will continue to import Iranian oil. Thus will Washington’s further threat of increased oil sanctions against Iran be blunted. Sunni Saudi Arabia, one of Trump’s closest allies – where religious freedom for the likes of Pastor Brunson has never existed – is already furious with Erdogan. Not long ago, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman denounced Turkey as part of a “triangle of evil” – the other bits of the “triangle” being Shiite Iran and militant Islamists.
So you can see how things are lining up in the Middle East right now. Erdogan has made good friends out of Putin and Iran’s supreme leader and, as an opponent of Saudi Arabia, is naturally on the best of terms with Qatar, whose Emir – in a miraculous moment which even Pastor Brunson might envy – has just promised an investment of $15bn to Turkey. Saudi Arabia’s siege of Qatar is beginning to look as miserable as its war against the Shiites of Yemen. Turkish troops are stationed in Qatar to “protect” the little emirate against its larger and threatening neighbour – and we all know who that is. And, since Syrian and Qatari relations are steadily being reheated – albeit on the minutest scale – I wonder who will benefit the most.

Bashar al-Assad, perhaps? Russian troops are now patrolling the Syrian-Israeli lines below the occupied Golan Heights. The Russians have promised Israel that the comparatively few Iranian forces in Syria will be kept at least 50 miles from this sector. Russia’s ally Syria needs to crush the final Islamist stronghold in Idlib with Russia’s help and push the province’s most intransigent fighters back into Turkey. Qatar has the cash to rebuild Syria and thus extend its influence across the landmass of the Levant to the Mediterranean. If Qatar is going to pour even more billions into Turkey, then we may see some kind of strategic alliance between Doha and Ankara. And a rediscovery of the family friendship between Erdogan and Assad?

Set against this horizon, Erdogan doesn’t need to be a “brave falcon”. Just a wily old bird.

PRO NEWS (Translated from Greek.)

Ankara's Slavo Lavrov: "Together with China, Turkey & Iran we are starting a war against the dollar"

Written by: Theophrastos Andreopoulos

Russia is launching a direct war on the dollar with China, Iran and Turkey! "The role of the dollar as a currency for global trade is declining," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said a moment ago from Ankara .

"Russia has been discussing for a long time the possibility of using national currencies to trade with Turkey, Iran and China ," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said during a visit to the Turkish capital.

As Reuters reports, Mr Lavrov stressed that the role of the dollar as the currency in which global trade is being conducted will be retreated.

Russia's support for Turkey in Russia was directly counter to the US, as Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Turkish counterpart Mevluth Tsavusoglu, who visited Ankara during the Ambassador's Conference, where he discussed developments in Syrian Indlim refugee and especially American sanctions.

The two ministers even made a rare political move to give a joint press conference in which Mr Lavrov described " unorthodox US sanctions against Iran and Turkey and that they are incompatible with the rules of international trade".

"They are unilateral decisions aimed at promoting their own entrepreneurs, punishing their allies.This policy can not continue for a long time "
Tsavousoglou said that " Turkey is opposed to the sanctions that the US has decided against Iran"and added that "Washington can not make decisions alone and ask everyone to follow it. We are in agreement with the UN's decisions. US moves are also targeting Europe and the dollar has begun, "concluded Tsavousoglou.

So what years ago, pronews.gr had recorded, became reality. The great forces of the planet have decided to beat the Americans' "gun" by imposing sanctions on anyone who does not like his "breath".

So they control the economic situation of all the countries of the globe as it is the global reserve currency but also for what markets use.

Pronews.gr has warned from the outset that the dollar as used by the Americans is creating bubbles. "Bubbles" that when they snatch "ruffle" everything like "black holes".

Americans use the dollar as an aggressive weapon for two reasons:

First, for them to pass well, using it as an inexhaustible means of wealth, and secondly for the rest of the people, especially those who pose a threat to their global hegemony, not to pass well.

Through the dollar they control the markets, impose sanctions on whomever they want, cause financial "strangulation", that is, they use a "scarred" deck and they all belong to them.

Even the former Soviet Union in dollars traded.

Now, however, Russia and China have begun a major devaluation attempt to enforce it across the globe and to reintroduce the rule of gold, which at least complies with the rules of Logic.

Turkey is also on the same path as PT Erdogan realized that he would never be ... free as he depends on the dollar (see relevant article here and here )

That there is with that we pay. With the dollar the existence of money became a kind of ... unpublished.

To make it clear to readers that pronews.gr for many years has been alarming about an upcoming dollar crisis, we present the Prophet's "prophetic" statement a year before becoming president of the United States and made it to Fox News "On the Record with Greta Van Susteren."

Characteristically, the US is no longer a rich country.

"We have a debt of 16 trillion dollars and once we reach 21-22 trillion dollars, we will de facto restructure ourselves"

"The real unemployment rate in the country is 15-16% and some believe it is 21%! At the moment the country is not doing well and the term recession is just a nice word to describe it"

It is noted that US debt accounts for 1/4 of the global debt and has completely escaped from any human limit. Probably owed him to his Clegg ... Star Trek. This is because many domestic news media play with our intelligence.

The issue is that US debt has already reached 21 trillion dollars in the Trump chair!

Mr Trab wanted to save the dollar for it and "froze" or "freeze" trade to directly reduce American deficits that have received galactic dimensions and added to a galaxy debt.

But as everyone knows the dollar is not just a currency, it is the status of the US. And if that is questioned then it means war.

Zero Hedge

Lira Collapse To Jump The Mediterranean

By Tyler Durden

August 8, 2018

Authored by Tom Luongo,

The Turkish Lira crisis is fundamentally different than the Russian Ruble crisis of 2014/15. This one has contagion risk.

Back then no one was worried about the fall of the ruble having spillover effect. If Sberbank failed, it wouldn’t jump to Europe. Then again, there was little worry about that since the Russians had more than enough in reserves to cover the debts.

With Turkey, however, there is a real worry about this jumping into Europe. From Zerohedge:

Friday’s fall came after the Financial Times reported that supervisors at the European Central Bank are concerned about exposure of some of Europe’s biggest lenders to Turkey, including chiefly BBVA, UniCredit and BNP Paribas. The FT reported that along with the currency’s decline, the ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism has begun to look more closely at European lenders’ links with Turkey. The moves also came after the US showed no signs of lifting crippling sanctions despite the visit of a Turkish delegation to the US capital.

According to the FT, the ECB is concerned about the risk that Turkish borrowers might not be hedged against the lira’s weakness and begin to default on foreign currency loans, which make up about 40% of the Turkish banking sector’s assets.

And while it does not yet view the situation as critical, it sees Spain’s BBVA, Italy’s UniCredit and France’s BNP Paribas, which all have significant operations in Turkey, as particularly exposed, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Everyone thought Turkey would not take their feud with the U.S. this far, that U.S. hybrid war belligerence would win the day before the point of contagion.

But, that’s the problem with most market analysts, they analyze things in terms of the best trade of the moment, not the best trade for the next fifty years.

They only analyze in terms of what they would do to protect their trade, not what a country would do to protect its future.

Turkey needs to become independent of the U.S. and the depredations of dollar diplomacy. Erdogan will use this extreme weakness in the lira and the bond markets to separate those companies loyal to Turkey and those loyal to the U.S.

And the former will be bailed out and the latter left to twist in the wind, blowing back their bankruptcies on the European and U.S. banks that are exposed to them.

The first rule of writing is that conflict reveals character, it doesn’t create it.

Remember, debt is a two-way street. When the debts are small they are your problem. When they are large, however, they are the bank’s problem.

$222 billion in U.S. dollar-denominated Turkish corporate debt is the definition of the bank’s problem. So, while the U.S. barks and Trump splutters about ‘winning’ and all the rest, Erdogan remembers that these are the same people who tried to depose him in 2015 and failed.

And Vladimir Putin and Iran were the ones who saved his hide and his government.

This started with President Trump doubling the tariffs on Turkey as President Erdogan continues to defy him over the return of Pastor Brunson, who has got to be a CIA asset or something. There’s no reason why we’re willing to go to these lengths to alienate and outright destroy the economy of a NATO partner unless there was something bigger at play.

I’ve spoken at length over the past few months about how this situation (check out the articles here) and fully believe that Erdogan and Turkey knew this was coming and are prepared for it.

Because, this morning the talk about this collapse is not about the effects on the Turkish economy or Turks themselves, but rather how it affects the bottom lines of the broader markets... you know, those who have the most to lose here.

Turkish Judo?

So, at any point Turkey could have knuckled under. It could have negotiated with Trump to avoid this. But, given that they refused to it tells me a number of things:

Erdogan has the popular support to ride this out.
Erdogan has the international support of his new friends: Russia, China, Iran and India to keep the internal Turkish markets liquid.
Erdogan is preparing for the move to leave NATO, now that China is prepared to militarily support the last phase of the Syrian Civil War in cleaning up Idlib.
Turkey’s refusal to stop doing business with Russia and Iran on energy and defense puts them in a strong position to remake much of their economy.
The Dollar will be removed from the Turkish economy in response to this regime-change attempt.

These are the things we know. We also know that China is Turkey’s biggest trading partner and will keep Turkey liquid through dollar-lira-yuan swaps.

Now that we have that out of the way it is really that hard to believe that Turkey didn’t invite this attack by the U.S.?

The proof of this is Erdogan’s refusal to accede to capital controls. He’s letting the capital flight happen. He wants the pain to be felt by everyone. And once it’s over, Turkey can rebuild its currency, since it has huge gold and foreign currency reserves and low sovereign debt-to-GDP.

In other words, Erdogan is forcing a shock de-dollarization of the Turkish economy. So, by the way, is Iran.

As I said before, crisis reveals character. And Erdogan can now figure out the character of those doing business in his country; where their loyalties lie. And knowing that there was significant contagion risk, isn’t it reasonable to think that Erdogan, Putin and Xi see this as an opportunity to hit the U.S. and Europe as hard as they are getting hit?

Russian Roulette

At the beginning I said this situation didn’t mirror the Russian crisis of 2014/15. That wasn’t completely true. From the contagion risk perspective no, from every other perspective yes.

Putin used the crisis to reel in the Bank of Russia and purge it of IMF-style thinking of responding to currency crisis. He forced central bank President Elvira Nabullina to bailout certain firms, swapping their dollar-debt for ruble debt, while letting other wither.

He destroyed the legitimacy of advisors like Alexander Kudrin and much of the ‘Atlanticist Fifth Column’ that dominated the financial sector and began the process of truly de-dollarizing the Russian economy.

And because of this set Russia on a path of financial and foreign policy independence that cannot be challenged by the U.S. in any material way. Sure, sanctions will hurt a little here or there, but there are work-arounds. People are smarter than governments, and capital flows to where it is treated best.

Sanctions have limits. Invariably, they never work. Putin’s approval rating soared post-ruble crisis. He had to endure a major coup attempt from within the Kremlin in March of 2015, likely from the same fifth-column oligarchs whose oxen he’d been goring for years.

He survived and it’s now history.

Erdogan has survived to this point with more power and popularity than he’s ever had. Expect the same outcome, but this time it’ll cost the U.S. NATO and the EU possibly its currency.

***

Euro could collapse without ECB bond guarantee – Italy’s right-wing Northern League party

August 13, 2018

Italy’s ruling Northern League party predicts the dismantling of the euro unless the European Central Bank (ECB) offers a guarantee to reduce yield spreads in the eurozone.

"The situation can’t be resolved and it is going to explode,” the economics spokesman of Italy’s ruling Northern League party, Claudio Borghi, told Reuters. His words come after Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese government bond yields rose following the financial turmoil surrounding Turkey.

“Either the ECB offers a guarantee or the euro will be dismantled,” he said. The right-wing Northern League party forms a coalition with the co-ruling 5-Star Movement.

A bond yield spread is the difference between yields on differing debt instruments. Typically, the higher risk a bond carries, the higher its yield spread. In other words, if a country’s economy is strong, its bond would carry less risk and the yield would be lower.

Since the 2008 global crisis, differences between euro area countries have become more pronounced, as the spreads of some countries (especially Ireland and Greece) widened much more than those of other countries (such as France and the Netherlands).

“Today the ECB has the power to make you lose your debt and get on your knees. It should be ensured that the Central Bank intervenes as soon as the spread between the securities of two European countries reaches two hundred,” Borghi said back in July.

Eurosceptic Borghi, a top economic adviser for the Northern League, was named the head of the budget committee in the Italian parliament’s lower house this June. Borghi, a former Deutsche Bank trader, is acknowledged for the proposal of Italy’s short-term treasury bills, a form of parallel currency or even a temporary form of payment to be used in a transitional period if the country ditches the euro.

***

'Surprise guest' Putin ruffles feathers with plan to attend Euroskeptic Austrian FM's wedding

August 16, 2018

From security arrangements to choice of present to geopolitical implications, Western media is fascinated (and alarmed) by Vladimir Putin's decision to call in on the wedding of Karin Kneissl – and some have demanded she resign.

Before all else, it appears that in almost two decades as an international political figure, this is the first time the Russian president has publicized intentions to go to a wedding party, much less one abroad. His long-term press secretary Dmitry Peskov insisted that Putin has visited foreign private events previously, but when pressed by reporters, struggled to recall a specific occasion.

Other Russian officials are also downplaying the significance of Putin's Saturday morning detour en-route to talks with Angela Merkel later the same day. The president's aide Yuri Ushakov said that Putin would "drop in to offer his congratulations," while Peskov presented the whole affair as a matter of common courtesy: Kneissl invited the Russian leader during his official visit in June, and Putin simply accepted.

But for the German-language press, the announcement of the "surprise guest" has been a bombshell.

Political scientist Gerhard Mangott told Austria's national broadcaster ORF that the very invitation of a higher-ranked foreign official, which was only made public on Wednesday's was a "bold" violation of accepted diplomatic protocol by Kneissl. Others have noted that there appears to be no personal connection between the Russian president and the respected technocrat, who has been in her post for less than a year.

Elite sniper security for the mystery vineyard

Details of what would have been a mostly-private affair – Vladimir Putin is expected to be the only senior foreign dignitary in attendance – have become subject of intense public scrutiny.

So far, the location has not been revealed, though it is expected that 53-year-old Kneissl, and multi-millionaire entrepreneur Wolfgang Meilinger, 54, will tie the knot at a scenic vineyard in the Styrian highlands.

Putin is expected to arrive in Graz on his plane, travel to the location by helicopter, and there have also been reports of a planned carriage ride, though it is unclear if the Russian president will join the happy couple for that part of the ceremony. The local tourist board has complained at being inundated with calls demanding to know the exact route the wedding procession will take.

Styrian police have said that the security operation, one of the biggest in its recent history, is a "great challenge" and scores of cops have been called out for patrol duty, with roadblocks erected at various undisclosed locations. The elite Cobra unit will provide snipers, according to Kronen Zeitung, a Vienna daily. The Austrian foreign ministry has assured the media that while Putin will be afforded the usual security arrangements for a foreign visitor of his stature, the Russian delegation is paying for its own security arrangements, while a private company will ensure the safety of the wedding party guests.

Finally, what is Putin is going to gift the new couple?

"I can't tell you this at the moment. You will know when the time comes," teased Peskov.

'Austria is Putin's Trojan horse'

In the day following the announcement, light-hearted surprise has already been replaced with rancorous and shadowy theories about Putin's motivations for filling in his RSVP.

For Mangott, since the formation of the right-wing coalition following last October's election, Austria has become a "Trojan horse" with which the Kremlin can hope to rebuild tattered relations with the European Union.

Indeed, Putin chose Vienna as his first EU capital to visit following his re-election for the fourth term in March, while Austria has publicly offered to play the role of a go-between, and notably abstained from the diplomat expulsions connected to the Skripal case, undertaken by most of the European Union.

Meanwhile, Kneissl is unaffiliated to any political faction, but she is a principled Euroskeptic, and was handpicked by the Freedom Party, which enjoys official links with Putin's United Russia.

For some, the wedding is the final straw. The foreign policy chief of the Ukrainian parliament, Hanna Hopko, has said that this very step proves that Austria can no longer be "neutral mediator" between Moscow and Kiev.

Meanwhile, Austria's Green MEP Michel Reimon has declared that Kneissl must resign for the sheer act of inviting the Russian president. That's one man not on the guest list.

With a whole day to go before Vladimir Putin steps on Austrian soil, expect more dire warnings of what the Russian leader may discuss over canapés and champagne – but the more important encounter will be the one that begins several hours later at a palace north of Berlin.

***

Sky news

26 dead as motorway bridge collapses in Genoa

Up to 35 vehicles are believed to have plunged off the bridge during a sudden and violent storm, many falling onto rail tracks.

August 14, 2018

Seven people have been pulled out alive from the wreckage of a collapsed bridge in the northern Italian city of Genoa as it is confirmed 26 have died.

This figure could rise, as 16 people are injured.

Earlier reports suggested as many as 35 had died, with the Interior Ministry also saying "about 30" had been killed.

The dead include at least one child, reports the Corriere newspaper, quoting the Interior Ministry.

Two of those rescued were flown to hospital by helicopter, firefighters said, while rescuers say a further 10 people are missing.

Thirty-five cars and three heavy vehicles are under the bridge, Italian Civil Protection said.

In the early evening, the fire service said the number of firefighters on the scene had risen to 300.

Firefighters still heard voices from under the rubble up almost 12 hours after the collapse, fire official Bruno Frattasi told state broadcaster RAI.

Seven survivors have been pulled out so far.

"We are still trying to extract survivors from the rubble," Genoa police official Alessandra Bucci said. "We hope to find more people alive."

A family believed to be going on holiday have been found in the rubble, with rescuers saying they found suitcases inside the car. A former professional footballer experienced a "miracle" as he survived after he fell while driving on the bridge as it crumbled.

The vehicles plunged a significant distance into a river and an industrial area when a large section of the Morandi Bridge collapsed at about 11.30am during a sudden and violent storm.

As Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte arrived in Genoa, with plans to stay in the city over night, he confirmed the number of dead was verified to be 22.

Italian Deputy Transport Minister Edoardo Rixi told SkyNews24 the number of dead is set to rise.

"It's not acceptable that such an important bridge... was not built to avoid this kind of collapse...The central section came down," he said.

A fire service spokesperson told AFP that the bridge had mostly fallen on rail tracks below, taking "cars and trucks" with it

As emergency services personnel picked through ground strewn with huge chunks of rubble and metal, they searched large white lorries, which were left overturned and smashed into pieces, lying upturned with their wheels in the air.

A man who was under the bridge says it's "a miracle" that he survived.

The unnamed middle-aged man told Italian media he was stood in front of his truck under the bridge as the structure collapsed Tuesday.

A lorry teeters near the edge after the bridge collapsed

The man, speaking in Italian to reporters as walked away from the disaster site, said the shockwave sent him flying over 10 metres (33 feet) into a wall, injuring his right shoulder and hip.

He says "I was in front of the truck, and flew away like everything else. Yes, I think it's a miracle. I don't know what to say. I'm out of words."

A white car had been flattened as if it had been in a crusher, one of its doors squeezed outwards and its windscreen improbably still intact

Video showing parts of the structure falling has been posted to Twitter by local police and what appears to be flashes of electricity are visible as concrete columns shatter and drop into water.

Around 200 firefighters have been responding to the incident and have told the Associated Press they are concerned about gas lines.

A witness told Sky Italia television he saw "eight or nine" vehicles on the bridge when it collapsed in what he called an "apocalyptic scene".

Transport Minister Danilo Toninelli said in a tweet that he was "following with great apprehension what seems like an immense tragedy".

Video captured the sound of a man screaming: "Oh God, oh, God."

Other pictures included one of a green truck that had stopped on the bridge just yards short of the gaping hole in the road surface.

The mayor of Genoa Marco Bucci said: "The collapse of the Morandi bridge is an immense tragedy for our city...But we must react immediately with strength and pride ".

The bridge is part of the A10 toll road which runs into the port city and is likely to have been busier than usual as it is the eve of Farragusto, a major Italian summer holiday marking the religious feast of the Assumption of Mary.

Traffic would have been heavier than usual as most cities and businesses are closed as Italians head to the beaches or the mountains.

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